2024-04-13
The purpose of this notebook is to answer a question I've had since Selen's termination from Nijisanji EN. Namely: while anecdotally, it feels like the Nijisanji EN streamers have been cutting back, and while it's been said that their CCV (concurrent viewers) on their streams are down, I haven't had the data to go and figure out whether this is actually the case.
So, that's what I'm going to do here. Using data from sources on the internet, I want to figure out whether in fact there has been a decrease of streams, and/or a decrease of viewers. To do this, I'm going to pull from 2 data sources: Holodex and vstats.jp
The code to do the pulling is not available at this time. The holodex data was retrieved the Holodex API via Python. The vstats data was retrieved using some custom web scraping code using BeautifulSoup. The data retrieved, however, is presented here with the notebooks, for the purposes of data research.
| org_grouping | streams_count_future | average_video_average_viewers_future | stddev_video_average_viewers_future | average_video_viewer_time_hrs_future | stddev_video_viewer_time_hrs_future | average_video_views_future | stddev_video_views_future | average_video_likes_future | stddev_video_likes_future | ... | diff_amt_to_future_video_likes_past60 | diff_stddev_to_future_video_likes_past60 | diff_amt_to_future_video_likes_past90 | diff_stddev_to_future_video_likes_past90 | diff_amt_to_future_video_likes_past120 | diff_stddev_to_future_video_likes_past120 | diff_amt_to_future_video_likes_past150 | diff_stddev_to_future_video_likes_past150 | diff_amt_to_future_video_likes_past180 | diff_stddev_to_future_video_likes_past180 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nijisanji EN Related | 44 | 839.318182 | 734.606288 | 2648.545455 | 2359.963766 | 14597.931818 | 12608.545178 | 914.977273 | 411.551084 | ... | -1823.113636 | -0.352936 | -1642.214217 | -0.395669 | -1572.722727 | -0.408050 | -1519.331369 | -0.430629 | -1390.288352 | -0.426010 |
| 1 | Nijisanji EN | 861 | 1219.505226 | 2252.364433 | 4219.941928 | 6211.710495 | 21713.178862 | 52287.443978 | 2096.075494 | 2757.602983 | ... | -229.742165 | -0.079836 | -209.165135 | -0.079816 | -301.718583 | -0.116339 | -313.593270 | -0.123810 | -508.279612 | -0.135343 |
| 2 | Nijisanji JP | 303 | 9535.465347 | 7430.742611 | 34422.666667 | 50280.800232 | 141150.537954 | 119553.559578 | 4674.740310 | 3160.320070 | ... | -728.309277 | -0.250877 | -705.115276 | -0.235795 | -603.593724 | -0.203571 | -716.913471 | -0.233908 | -1169.937514 | -0.232829 |
3 rows × 112 columns
For NijiEN, I'm using the entirety of EN, ignoring all group channels.
| english_name | group | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pomu Rainpuff | EN LazuLight |
| 1 | Elira Pendora | EN LazuLight |
| 2 | Finana Ryugu | EN LazuLight |
| 3 | Rosemi Lovelock | EN OBSYDIA |
| 4 | Petra Gurin | EN OBSYDIA |
| 5 | Selen Tatsuki | EN OBSYDIA |
| 6 | Nina Kosaka | EN Ethyria |
| 7 | Millie Parfait | EN Ethyria |
| 8 | Enna Alouette | EN Ethyria |
| 9 | Reimu Endou | EN Ethyria |
| 10 | Luca Kaneshiro | EN Luxiem |
| 11 | Shu Yamino | EN Luxiem |
| 12 | Ike Eveland | EN Luxiem |
| 13 | Mysta Rias | EN Luxiem |
| 14 | Vox Akuma | EN Luxiem |
| 15 | Uki Violeta | EN Noctyx |
| 16 | Yugo Asuma | EN Noctyx |
| 17 | Sonny Brisko | EN Noctyx |
| 18 | Alban Knox | EN Noctyx |
| 19 | Fulgur Ovid | EN Noctyx |
| 20 | Maria Marionette | EN ILUNA |
| 21 | Kyo Kaneko | EN ILUNA |
| 22 | Aia Amare | EN ILUNA |
| 23 | Aster Arcadia | EN ILUNA |
| 24 | Scarle Yonaguni | EN ILUNA |
| 25 | Ren Zotto | EN ILUNA |
| 26 | Zaion LanZa | EN XSOLEIL |
| 27 | Doppio Dropscythe | EN XSOLEIL |
| 28 | Meloco Kyoran | EN XSOLEIL |
| 29 | Hex Haywire | EN XSOLEIL |
| 30 | Kotoka Torahime | EN XSOLEIL |
| 31 | Ver Vermillion | EN XSOLEIL |
| 32 | Vezalius Bandage | EN Krisis |
| 33 | Vantacrow Bringer | EN Krisis |
| 34 | Yu Q. Wilson | EN Krisis |
| 35 | Kunai Nakasato | EN TTT |
| 36 | Victoria Brightshield | EN TTT |
| 37 | Claude Clawmark | EN TTT |
For a little bit of extra reference, I also grabbed a few of the Niji talents that are often closely associated with EN.
| english_name | group | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hana Macchia | Ex-ID 3SetBBQ |
| 1 | Oliver Evans | Eden-gumi |
| 2 | Mika Melatika | Ex-ID 6WS |
And to give a point of comparison, for JP, I picked a number of relatively known talents, among the more popular of the branch.
| english_name | group | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tsukino Mito | First Generation |
| 1 | Kanae | Ex-Gamers |
| 2 | Kuzuha | Ex-Gamers |
| 3 | Lize Helesta | Sanbaka |
| 4 | Ange Katrina | Sanbaka |
| 5 | Inui Toko | Sanbaka |
| 6 | Hoshikawa Sara | Orihimeboshi |
| 7 | Fuwa Minato | Night Kingdom |
| 8 | Hyakumantenbara Salome | 2022 Solo |
First up, we show some information about the streams done per day by group.
In NijiEN, you can see a somewhat subtle but noticeable falloff in the numbear of streams done in the days after Selen's termination. In particular, the stream quantity falloff is noticeable in EN's first four groups (LazuLight, OBSYDIA, Ethyria, and Luxiem). LazuLight's falloff might have been harmed a bit extra by the graduation of Pomu at the end of January as well. Still, things show.
Not really a lot of data here in the related talents. Mika's graduation is fairly apparent.
Meanwhile, you see pretty much no variance within the selected top talents in NijiJP. This suggests that indeed, the situation is isolated at the moment to NijiEN here.
Using matched data from vstats.jp, I created some graphs of all of the CCV counts for streams in our time range that were on vstats.jp for the talents. Some of the graphs are kind of messy, unfortunately, and it's a bit hard to tell a trend line on the larger graphs, but some of the smaller graphs tell interesting stories.
By comparison, the data for the related channels is below:
And finally, the data for the NijiJP channels
To see if I can get more granularity in the information, this is what it looks like using overall viewer hours for the streams, rather than average CCV.
Nothing particularly interesting in the group graphs, TBH.
But the per talent graphs using viewer hours? There are some interesting pieces.
Finally, at the suggestion of u/Shuber-Fuber on Reddit, taking a look at the averages and standard deviations of those averages over the course of some time periods back.
The relatively high standard deviations compared to the averages really does highlight just how variant the audiences of the various streams are, unfortunately. Which will make trying to perceive differences in concurrent viewers that much harder.